According to JPMorgan Chase’s team of analysts, bitcoin could be hurt in the coming days by an eventual exodus of those trend-following investors unless the price manages to get back above $40,000 soon.
In other words, there would be a threshold to be crossed in order for the sentiment to remain positive, so much so that it could also encourage further growth.
In a negative case a significant price decline is possible.
For the threshold to be exceeded, JPMorgan Chase analysts write in a note, BTC inflows into the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust would have to sustain the pace of $100 million per day in the coming weeks, as it is precisely the purchases of Grayscale customers and BTC price futures contracts that would be the basis of this trend.
In the event that the $40,000 threshold is not crossed, analysts speculate that the price of BTC will fall below the 50-day moving average, or to around $25,000.
This drop, should it occur, could be triggered by trend-following traders, who:
“could propagate last week’s correction.”
“The boom in cryptocurrencies since March has reflected the exuberance of financial markets awash in stimulus – as well as concern about whether the gains will ultimately prove ephemeral.”
This scenario described by JPMorgan Chase seems to be decidedly bearish, while in reality sentiment in the crypto markets still seems to be bullish.
For example, Pantera Capital’s projection that hypothesizes bitcoin at $115,000 in August 2021 is gathering several supporters, such as the famous Didi Taihuttu who writes on Twitter:
“Crazy!!! Bitcoin target at $115,212 in August 2021.”
In fact, this projection was built on the stock-to-flow model of bitcoin, which is gathering more and more supporters thanks to the fact that in recent times it has provided fairly accurate indications of likely price movements.
However, the current phase of lateralization still remains shrouded in uncertainty, as there is no agreement at all between the forecasts of the various analysts.